Published On: Mon, Aug 31st, 2015

Future population growth depends heavily on migration

CBS presents' Population Projections 2015-2050 ", results and analysis of five population projection scenarios.

Curacao statisticsWILLEMSTAD - To make a forecast of the expected future population development of Curaçao five different scenarios were prepared. Each scenario is composed of a combination of various assumptions in the field of fertility, mortality, and migration, the components of population development. The publication "Population Projections 2015-2050" describes the methodology and gives a general outline of the results, an analysis of the five scenarios (standard migration constant fertility, high immigration, emigration, not immigration) and a short explanation on how to use the different scenarios. The forecasts are made based on historical data series from the population of Curaçao in combination with Census Data.

Key results of the population projections 2015-2050

Migration plays an important role in the future population development: with a strong positive net migration, the population grows possibly from 157,000 in 2015 to nearly 220,000 people in 2050, while a new emigration wave like the one Curaçao 1998-2001 witnessed over the years, can lead to a decrease to approximately 146,000 people in 2050.

The 'standard migration scenario, which could be considered a' middle 'scenario, resulting in an expected population of approximately 178,000 people in 2050. The "constant fertility" scenario results in approximately 189,000 people in 2050.

If no migration takes place, the population would gradually decline to 155,000 in 2050. This is not a realistic scenario, but provides a reference for the other scenarios.

With the exception of the high immigration scenario, the population will decline in all scenarios and eventually become negative.

Aging is an inevitable process in the population of Curaçao. In all scenarios, you will see further aging of the population taking place. Be it slow migration can accelerate the aging process: a large positive net migration slows down the aging process, while a wave of emigration aging accelerates it.

In 2050, the median age of the population is between 46 and 52 years. That's five to 11 years higher than in 2015.

The population aged 65 years and older is expected to be approximately 24 to 30 percent of the total population in 2050, which is an increase from 9 to 15 percentage points compared to 2015.

The population will live longer with increasing life expectancy. An increase in life expectancy in Curaçao will therefore lead to a sharp increase in older age groups, the 80's. Their share is expected to increase by just over 3 percent in 2015 to 8 to 11 percent in 2050.

It is expected that in 2050 the elderly (65+) are economically dependent on the population of about half as many people of working age (20-64 years) than in 2015 (approximately two people per person aged over 65 in 2050 compared with around 4 persons aged over 65 in 2015).

A decrease in the fertility of the population will lead to an expected decrease in the proportion of young people (<15 years) in the population of some 19 percent in 2015 to 14 to 17 percent in 2050.

When the fertility level of the population remains the same (around 2.1 children per woman in 2015), the so-called 'greening' of the population is expected to be less drastic. A wave of emigration is expected to result in the greatest decrease in the proportion of young people.


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