WILLEMSTAD - A looming recession in the United States could have devastating consequences for Curaçao and the wider Dutch Caribbean, with projections pointing to steep economic contraction, mass job losses, and long-term setbacks to growth. Analysts warn that the islands’ overwhelming dependence on American tourism makes them among the most vulnerable economies in the Kingdom.
According to recent economic studies, tourism accounts for 37 percent of Curaçao’s GDP, 50 percent of Bonaire’s, and as much as 72 percent of Aruba’s. Sint Maarten is estimated to fall somewhere between Aruba and Bonaire, given its high volume of visitors per resident. In all cases, U.S. tourists represent the backbone of the sector.
“Nearly four out of ten jobs in Curaçao are directly or indirectly tied to tourism. For Bonaire, that figure rises above half the workforce,” one economic report noted. A shock to U.S. consumer travel habits could therefore ripple across every sector, from hotels and restaurants to retail, transportation, and financial services.
Scenarios of Decline
Scenario models suggest that a moderate U.S. downturn would already cause measurable damage to the islands’ economies. But under a severe recession, Curaçao’s GDP could shrink by 16 percent in 2025, with Bonaire facing an even sharper contraction of 19 percent. Employment would drop by at least 1,800 jobs on Curaçao and 500 on Bonaire, undermining years of slow but steady post-pandemic recovery.
Even after tourism numbers recover by 2031, GDP levels would still remain significantly below where they would have been without a recession — 15 percent lower in Curaçao and over 5 percent lower in Bonaire.
Why So Vulnerable?
The islands’ structural weaknesses amplify the risks. Their currencies are tied to the U.S. dollar, imports are overwhelmingly sourced from the U.S., and exports are negligible. Unlike trade tariffs, which have little direct effect due to the lack of significant exports, declines in American travel strike at the very heart of the economy.
With U.S. forecasts for growth being revised downward and economists including Lupton, Michaillat, and Wolf (2025) warning of recession risks, the question is no longer “if” but “how hard” the blow will be for Curaçao and its neighbors.
A Missed Opportunity
What makes this warning even sharper is the criticism that, in the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic, local governments failed to push through the structural reforms that could have diversified the economy. Despite IMF and Central Bank recommendations, diversification into sectors like renewable energy, knowledge services, and food security lagged behind.
“Politicians had a window of opportunity to make the economies more resilient. That window has closed,” one economist observed, noting that overreliance on tourism has only deepened since the pandemic.
Looking Ahead
The consequences will not be confined to GDP figures and employment rates. As GreenLeft-PvdA MP Raoul White recently noted in the Dutch Parliament, fear and uncertainty among the population are already being felt, compounded by wider geopolitical tensions in the region. Falling visitor numbers from the U.S. could also erode public finances, making it harder to sustain social programs, pensions, and debt repayments.
For Curaçao and the other islands, the conclusion is stark: without serious reform and economic diversification, the Caribbean part of the Kingdom remains at the mercy of U.S. economic cycles. A recession in the U.S. would not simply be an American problem — it would strike at the very core of the islands’ livelihoods.
