THE HAGUE – A newly released Dutch intelligence report warns that the greatest threat Venezuela poses to Curaçao, Aruba, and Bonaire is not deliberate aggression, but the risk of accidental escalation due to the lack of professionalism within the Venezuelan military.
The findings are detailed in the 2025 Threat Assessment on State Actors, sent to the Dutch Parliament by Minister Van Weel of Justice and Security. The report, compiled by national intelligence and security agencies, outlines multiple concerns for the Dutch Caribbean, all stemming from the ongoing political, economic, and humanitarian crisis in Venezuela.
“It is unlikely that Venezuela intends to initiate a military conflict with the Kingdom of the Netherlands. However, the chance of unintentional escalation exists due to the relatively low military professionalism in Venezuela,” the report states.
ABC Islands Feel Direct Impact
The report emphasizes that Aruba, Bonaire, and Curaçao continue to experience the direct consequences of Venezuela’s domestic turmoil. With a deteriorating economy, weakened institutions, and growing unrest, the neighboring South American nation remains a volatile presence just kilometers from the shores of the Dutch Caribbean.
Tensions between the Netherlands and Venezuela have further escalated following the Kingdom's refusal to recognize Nicolás Maduro’s claimed victory in the 2024 presidential elections — a move that has strained diplomatic ties and complicated regional cooperation.
Migration and Crime Pressure Building
One of the most pressing concerns for the islands is the risk of mass migration. Although current migration levels are already placing pressure on local services, the report warns that a sudden surge of refugees from Venezuela could severely strain Curaçao’s social stability and public infrastructure.
“Migration from Venezuela to the islands, and cross-border criminal activity, remain ongoing risks. A large-scale migration event could overwhelm medical services, law enforcement, and the judicial system, which are inherently small-scale and therefore vulnerable,” the report notes.
Curaçao’s Fragile Security Buffer
While Curaçao and its neighbors remain under the protection of the Kingdom of the Netherlands, the islands' geographical proximity to Venezuela and limited local resources leave them exposed to regional shocks. The threat may not come from deliberate military action, but from miscalculations, military exercises gone wrong, or unauthorized actions by poorly trained Venezuelan forces.
This report comes at a time when regional security cooperation is already being tested, and when Caribbean nations are urging the international community to pay greater attention to the growing instability just south of their borders.
The Kingdom’s government has not yet announced any new defensive or diplomatic measures in response to the report, but calls for increased preparedness and vigilance are likely to intensify in the coming weeks.
