The warning lights are flashing red. As the U.S. economy edges closer to a possible recession, Curaçao and its sister islands within the Kingdom are staring at a vulnerability we know too well: our dangerous overreliance on American tourism. The num

bers are sobering. On Curaçao, tourism makes up 37 percent of our GDP. On Bonaire, it is 50 percent, and on Aruba an astonishing 72 percent. Sint Maarten’s exposure is similarly high. For every plane that lands at Hato or cruise ship that docks in Willemstad, thousands of local jobs are sustained — not only in hotels, bars, and taxis, but across retail, construction, and finance.

An American downturn means fewer flights, shorter stays, and thinner wallets. Scenario studies paint a grim picture: Curaçao’s economy could shrink by 16 percent in 2025 if a severe U.S. recession hits. Bonaire could be even worse off, facing a 19 percent contraction. Thousands of jobs would vanish almost overnight. And even if tourism recovers later this decade, we would still be left far behind where we should have been.

This is not a new revelation. After the financial crisis of 2008, and again during the pandemic, international organizations from the IMF to ECLAC urged us to diversify. Invest in renewable energy. Develop high-tech and knowledge-based services. Strengthen local agriculture to reduce import dependence. Each time, the call was clear. And yet, here we are again, with the same fragility, the same dependency, and now the same looming threat.

Our leaders squandered the post-pandemic moment. Rather than using recovery funds and global momentum for reform, we slid back into old patterns: patching up tourism, offering short-term relief, and hoping the next crisis wouldn’t come so soon. That luxury is gone.

Today, diversification is no longer a talking point. It is survival. Curaçao must urgently chart a course toward an economy that can withstand the turbulence of global shocks. Renewable energy, food security, financial services, the digital economy — these are not “nice-to-haves,” they are lifelines.

And let us be clear: diversification does not mean abandoning tourism. Tourism will always be one of our pillars, but it cannot be the entire house. A building with one pillar will collapse when that pillar shakes.

The United States has been and will remain our largest market. But our fate should not be chained to the ups and downs of Wall Street or Washington. We need leadership that is bold enough to tell the truth: the coming storm is real, and only action — not words — can protect our island’s future.

Curaçao has talent. We have creativity. We have resilience. What we lack is time. The window is closing.

The choice is stark: diversify or decline.