The far-right Dutch politician, Geert Wilders, known for his offensive anti-migrant and anti-Muslim views and who has more than once threatened to sell Curaçao, a Duch autonomous island in the Caribbean, on Marketplaats (the Dutch version of Ebay) won the Dutch elections, much to the surprise and chagrin of many. 

However, way too much is being read into this less than spectacular success of Mr. Wilders’s party PVV (Party for Freedom). His win in this small and rich parliamentary democracy, means that he got 37 seats in the 150-seat House of Representatives, the Tweede Kamer. To put this in perspective, any majority government needs the backing of at least 76 Members of the Tweede Kamer. In a Wilders cabinet, PVV will not even have the majority of seats. In terms of votes, PVV got 23 percent which means that 77 percent voted for the other 25 political parties. No clean sweep of any kind, but it signals discontent regarding uncontrolled migration, an acute housing need for the indigenous Dutch and the cost-of-living crisis. It also could be a growing apathy towards politics and electors who, after 13 years of Prime Minister Mark Rutte, had enough and wanted a change away from politics as usual. 

Let’s look at the panorama now that the smoke has cleared. Geert Wilders has no government experience in the 17 years he’s been with the PVV. He did however tolerate, for lack of a better translation of the Dutch gedoogbeleid, the VVD (People’s Party for Freedom and Democracy) minority coalition from 2010-2012 until he withdrew his tolerance agreement citing disagreement over proposed budget cuts. Mr. Wilders must have squirmed when the brand-new political leader of the VVD, Dilan Yeşilgöz-Zegerius, said her party would not join an eventual Wilders administration, but that she was willing to consider a gedoogbeleid. A masterstroke. Not because she gave him a taste of his own medicine, but especially because she took away Mr. Wilders’ control over the formation of the next cabinet. Geert Wilders was obviously disappointed and said VVD was dodging responsibility. In any case, this puts him in a very uneasy position to form a government. He would have preferred to initiate talks with BBB (Farmers-Citizens Movement) with 7 seats, NSC (New Social Contract) with 20 seats and VVD with 24 seats to get to a centrum-right government. That was not meant to be. 

Mr. Wilders has in the past always refused to work together with other parties and preferred staying safely in the opposition. If he wants to form a centrum-right cabinet, he needs to bring in more smaller parties which will be tough to negotiate. Or, he needs to go for a minority government hoping that VVD will consider helping him out when his minority government wants to pass a particular legislation or when parliamentary approval is needed for government’s policies.  Neither bodes well for his ability to govern. 

Should he fail to form a government, Mr. Timmermans of the Green Left-Labor who came in second with 25 seats, would be given a chance. That is also no guarantee for a smooth formation. He too, will probably need to go through a complicatd process of formation. Will the VVD join this initiative of the left? How would its voters react? Or, will the party ‘take a break’ from being 13 years consecutively in government, let its leader settle down in her new role and do some soul-searching after losing 10 seats in the Tweede Kamer?   

Some political pundits seem to believe that if Mr. Wilders is left outside of the formation, he could become an electorate monster by playing the victim and double down on his traditional anti-Muslim and anti-migrant rhetoric. True, this could happen. Additionally, some in the VVD may be swayed to vote for the PVV in the following elections. In a gathering last week of 350 VVD-members, a majority chose for joining PVV in a majority government. Many proponents of full cabinet participation of VVD, seem to have forgotten that the Rutte administration fell on precisely asylum migration and that according the VVD’s faction leader in the Tweede Kamer, Sophie Hermans: “the PVV’s asylum proposals do not match those of the VVD.” Maybe Mrs. Yeşilgöz-Zegerius needsto explain this to her VVD voters. 

So, will Wilders be a winner no matter what? Not so fast. The chances to keep Wilders from forming a government and impede him to grow exponentially come next elections, are real. The following should happen, however according to me. The formation process has to be long-drawn after which new elections are called. Last time it took 299 days to form a new government. These long periods of formation are not unheard of in the Netherlands. An extended period of formation would tire everyone who was looking forward to a solution for the most pressing problems. Especially Geert Wilders and PVV voters are eager to be part of a cabinet for the first time in history. Not accomplishing this would look bad on PVV’s leader and his ability to lead and govern. If he crawls back to the opposition seats in the Tweede Kamer again, this could have severe electorate consequences for him and his party. Yet, this could be the best strategy to deal with Geert Wilders. 

Alex David Rosaria (53) is a freelance consultant active in Asia & Pacific. He is a former Member of Parliament, Minister of Economic Affairs, State Secretary of Finance and UN Implementation Officer in Africa and Central America. He’s from Curaçao and has a MBA from the University of Iowa. (USA).