Marla Dukharan, economist and leading advisor on the Caribbean, known for thorough analysis and data-based assessments and insights, has recently published an interesting analysis and possible consequences for the Caribbean as a result of US actions. Following is an excerpt from her monthly economic report of February 2025. 

“In a world where global institutions are crumbling as we witness the consistent disintegration of the post-war international order, global cooperation is at its lowest in decades, and it is expected to grind even lower as national or even individual agendas and interests prevail.  Post-pandemic in particular. Traditional leaders and global institutions have been failing to resolve disputes or avoid disasters, demonstrating that reform of global institutions and power dynamics, is necessary. 

More that 70 countries held elections last year with more than 1.7 billion people voting-quite possibly the most ever-at a global average voter turnout of 61%.  This year will be the biggest election year ever for the Caribbean, with Jamaica, Trinidad and Tobago, Suriname, Guyana, St. Vincent and the Grenadines, Anguilla, Belize, Bermuda, Curaçao, the Turks and Caicos Islands ( completed), and the Cayman Islands all holding general elections this year. Cost of living will feature heavily in election campaigns, and will drive higher levels of poverty and hardship, and greater outward migration, possibly compounding major global demographic shifts. 

The shift in population domination in the global south has already brought significant change to global power dynamics, including the strengthening of the BRICS institution, which now includes Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran and UAE.  At their October 2024 summit in Russia, BRICS members introduced a cross-border interbank payment and settlement system called BRICS Pay as an alternative to the SWIFT system, further eroding the dominance of the USD-which used to account for about 80% of global reserves half a century ago, but is now about 60%.  Thirteen nations have been added as partner countries of BRICS: Algeria Belarus, Bolivia, Cuba, Indonesia, Kazakhstan, Malaysia, Nigeria, Thailand, Turkey, Uganda, Uzbekistan, and Vietnam.  India will continue to be the most populous country basically forever.  Roughly 80% of the population of India identifies and Hindu, but the dominant religion of the other most populous countries-Pakistan, Indonesia, Bangladesh, 50% of Nigeria, 33% of Tanzania, and 31% of Ethiopia, is Islam. 

Already the Caribbean region has faced the highest inflation globally for the past 10 years, and the social, economic and demographic implications for this inflation are not positive.”